The Oklahoma Sooners are set to host the Missouri Tigers in a defining regular-season clash on Saturday, November 22, 2025, at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00 a.m. Central Time, broadcast nationally on ABC as part of SEC Week 13. This isn’t just another November game—it’s a potential playoff decider for Oklahoma and a chance for Missouri to pull off one of the season’s biggest upsets, despite being without its starting quarterback.
Playoff Pressure on the Sooners
Oklahoma enters this game at 8-3, ranked No. 8, and needs to win both of its final two regular-season games to have any realistic shot at the College Football Playoff. The Sooners’ defense, under coordinator Brent Venables, has been the engine of their season: allowing just 14.8 points per game, good for eighth nationally. That unit has held four top-25 offenses under 20 points. But the offense? It’s been uneven. Quarterback John Mateer leads the team in rushing with 104 carries and seven touchdowns—more than any other ballcarrier. His ability to extend plays and grind out first downs has kept drives alive, but his passing has been inconsistent. Against Missouri, Oklahoma won’t need fireworks. It needs control. And Venables is preparing what CBS Sports calls “another vicious defensive game plan”—a blueprint designed to suffocate Missouri’s run-heavy attack.
Missouri’s Grit Under Fire
Missouri, ranked No. 22, is a team playing with house money. Their starting quarterback, Matt Zollers, is a true freshman thrust into the spotlight after the season-ending injury to their veteran starter. Zollers has struggled to find rhythm—completing just 52% of his passes and throwing three interceptions in his last two starts. Yet, the Tigers haven’t folded. They’ve played three ranked opponents this year—Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State—each within one possession. Their secret weapon? Ahmad Hardy, the sophomore running back who leads the nation in rushing yards. His 300-yard, three-touchdown explosion against Mississippi State wasn’t a fluke. He’s rushed for over 100 yards in seven of nine games. Missouri runs the ball on nearly 60% of snaps, a deliberate strategy to protect Zollers and control the clock. If they can keep the game under 45 minutes of live action, they can steal this.
Defensive Duel: The Real Story
Here’s the twist: neither team’s offense is elite. Oklahoma averages 28.3 points per game (64th nationally). Missouri scores 34.9 (23rd), but half of that came against a porous Mississippi State defense. The real story? The defenses. Oklahoma’s unit ranks eighth in points allowed. Missouri’s is 25th—solid, but not dominant. Still, both teams are disciplined, physical, and excel at limiting explosive plays. CBS Sports analyst said it best: “There is no straightforward path for the Tigers to move the ball.” That’s the key. Missouri’s offense doesn’t need to be perfect. It just needs to be patient. Oklahoma’s defense, meanwhile, must avoid the trap of over-pursuing Hardy and leaving lanes open for Zollers on play-action. A single turnover—or a defensive touchdown—could swing this entire game.
Betting Lines and Model Predictions
The betting market reflects Oklahoma’s advantage: favored by 7.5 points, with moneyline odds of -299. The implied probability? A 74.9% chance for the Sooners to win. But here’s where things get interesting. The total points line is set at 42.5—with over at -110 and under at -114. FOX Sports’ Data Skrive model predicts a 30-18 Oklahoma win and favors the over. But CBS Sports, citing the pace of play and defensive strength, leans heavily toward the under. ESPN’s prediction? A 17-6 Oklahoma win. That’s a 23-point differential. And it’s not as outlandish as it sounds. The last time these two teams met in 2021, Oklahoma won 28-10. The game featured just 57 total offensive plays. This one could be even slower.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Scoreboard
For Oklahoma, this is about legacy. A loss here, followed by a close call in their final game against Texas, could knock them out of the playoff conversation entirely. Fans are already restless—social media buzz about the new stadium seating setup has turned into full-blown agitation. “We’re not here to watch a grind,” one fan tweeted after last week’s 13-10 win. “We’re here to win.”
For Missouri, it’s about proving they belong. They’ve already beaten two SEC West teams. A win over a top-10 opponent with a freshman QB? That’s program-changing. It could vault them into a New Year’s Six bowl and give head coach Eli Drinkwitz leverage for recruiting next cycle.
And then there’s the weather. Forecasters in Norman are calling for 42 degrees and a 30% chance of light rain. That’s not just a chill—it’s a factor. Wet balls. Slippery turf. Harder to throw. Better for Hardy. Worse for Zollers.
What’s Next?
If Oklahoma wins by double digits, expect them to be ranked No. 6 or 7 in the final CFP rankings, with a likely Peach Bowl berth. If they lose? The playoff door slams shut. Missouri’s path is less clear: a win could get them into the Cotton Bowl or Outback Bowl, but a loss might land them in the Liberty Bowl. Either way, this game will echo through both programs for years.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Missouri’s offense function without its starting quarterback?
Missouri has shifted entirely to a run-first identity, relying on sophomore running back Ahmad Hardy, who leads the nation in rushing yards. True freshman Matt Zollers is managing the game with minimal passing—just 12-15 attempts per game—and avoiding mistakes. The offense operates on short, high-percentage runs and clock-killing drives, keeping the ball away from Oklahoma’s defense and limiting Zollers’ exposure.
Why is the over/under line so low despite Missouri’s high-scoring offense?
Missouri’s 34.9 points per game includes garbage-time scores against weaker defenses. Against top-tier units like Oklahoma’s (8th in points allowed), they’ve averaged just 17.2 points in their three games against ranked opponents. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s offense has been held under 20 points in three of its last five games. With both defenses elite and weather expected to be cold and damp, the under is the smarter play.
What’s the biggest X-factor in this game?
The turnover battle. Oklahoma has forced just 10 turnovers this season (99th nationally), while Missouri has forced 11 (86th). But with Zollers’ inexperience and Oklahoma’s aggressive defensive front, a single fumble or interception returned for a touchdown could be the difference. That’s why experts warn: don’t sleep on a defensive score.
Can Oklahoma’s offense generate enough points to cover the 7.5-point spread?
Unlikely. Oklahoma’s offense has averaged just 19.3 points per game in its last four contests. Even with a dominant defense, they’ve struggled to break 25 points against ranked teams. Missouri’s defense, while not elite, is disciplined and has held four opponents under 20. A 21-14 or 24-17 final score wouldn’t surprise anyone—and that’s not enough to cover 7.5.
How does this game impact the College Football Playoff picture?
A win for Oklahoma keeps them alive for the final playoff spot, likely pushing them into the No. 6 or 7 range. A loss, especially if it’s by more than a touchdown, all but eliminates them. For Missouri, a win wouldn’t directly impact the playoff, but it would make them a top-10 team in the final rankings and potentially earn them a New Year’s Six bowl—a massive step forward for a program that hasn’t won a conference title since 2013.
