When the final whistle blew on Thanksgiving night, the Los Angeles Rams weren’t just winning—they were announcing themselves as the team to beat in the NFC. At 9-2, they’ve climbed past the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles to claim the top seed in the NFC, according to NBC Sports’ ProFootballTalk report dated November 28, 2024. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs, last year’s Super Bowl champions, are clinging to playoff hopes at 6-6 after a crushing 31-24 loss in Dallas—a result that turned their season on its head. What was once a lock for the postseason now looks like a long shot, and the clock is ticking.
The Rise of the Rams
It’s hard to believe this is the same team that started the season 1-2. The Los Angeles Rams didn’t just improve—they reinvented themselves. Their defense, once leaky, now ranks third in the league in points allowed. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown just two interceptions since Week 7. And rookie running back Quinshon Judkins has become the offensive spark the team desperately needed. They’ve won five straight, including a statement 27-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, snapping the 49ers’ three-game winning streak. The Rams now hold the tiebreaker over every other NFC contender thanks to their head-to-head wins against the Seahawks and Packers.Chiefs’ Playoff Dreams Hang by a Thread
The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t just lose in Dallas—they unraveled. Patrick Mahomes threw two costly interceptions, and the defense gave up 21 points in the second half. It was the kind of performance that makes you wonder if last year’s magic was a fluke. Their 6-6 record puts them in a tie with the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers, but tiebreakers are brutal. The Chiefs lost head-to-head to the Houston Texans in Week 1, and now they’re behind four teams in the AFC. They need to win all four remaining games, and hope the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens stumble. It’s not impossible—but it’s not likely, either.Wild Card Chaos in Both Conferences
The NFC wild card race is a three-team dogfight: Seattle Seahawks (8-3), Green Bay Packers (8-3-1), and San Francisco 49ers (8-4). The Seahawks lead thanks to a better division record, but the Packers swept the Detroit Lions—a team that now sits at 7-5 and all but out of contention. Meanwhile, in the AFC, the Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills are all 7-4. The Chargers and Jaguars hold the tiebreakers over the Bills because of superior conference records. And here’s the twist: the Chargers got their season turned around with a Week 1 win over the Chiefs in Brazil—a game many dismissed as a gimmick. Now, that win looks like a turning point.
From Hope to Heartbreak: The Early-Season Projections That Got It Wrong
Back on September 9, 2024, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) had the Philadelphia Eagles at 80% playoff probability and the Buffalo Bills at 90%. The San Francisco 49ers were projected to win the NFC West. The Indianapolis Colts? Just 34% chance. Now? They’re 7-5 and in the thick of the AFC wild card race after a Week 1 win over the Miami Dolphins—a result that sent the Dolphins plummeting to 11% probability. The Chiefs and Ravens were both projected as top seeds. Now? They’re barely hanging on.What’s Next? The Final Four Weeks
The next four weeks are a minefield. The Rams face the San Francisco 49ers again in Week 16, and a loss could open the door for the Seahawks. The Chiefs have a brutal stretch: home against the Cincinnati Bengals, then road games at Tennessee and Buffalo. They need help. The Bills play the Ravens in Week 15—a game that could decide who gets the final AFC wild card. And don’t sleep on the Carolina Panthers (6-6). They’re one win away from the playoffs, and their defense has improved dramatically since Week 8.
Why This Matters Beyond the Standings
This isn’t just about who makes the playoffs. It’s about legacy. The Chiefs are trying to become the first team since the 2003-04 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls. The Rams are trying to prove they’re not a one-year wonder after their 2021 title. The Seahawks are chasing their first playoff berth since 2020. And for fans? It’s a reminder that in the NFL, nothing is guaranteed. Even the best-laid projections can collapse by Week 13. The 2025 season has been a masterclass in unpredictability—and the final act hasn’t even begun.Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes, but it’s unlikely. The Chiefs need to win all four remaining games and hope at least two of the four teams ahead of them (Bills, Ravens, Chargers, Jaguars) lose twice. Their head-to-head loss to the Texans and weaker conference record make tiebreakers a major hurdle. Their path is narrow, and every loss from now on is a death knell.
Why are the Rams considered Super Bowl favorites now?
The Rams lead the NFC with the best record (9-2), hold tiebreakers over all rivals, and have the league’s 3rd-ranked defense. They’ve won five straight, including road wins over top NFC teams. Their offense, once inconsistent, now has balance. With home-field advantage locked in and momentum building, they’re the most complete team left in the conference.
Who has the easiest path to the playoffs in the AFC?
The Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars have the easiest paths. Both hold tiebreakers over the Bills, have favorable remaining schedules (each has one game against a team under .500), and are only one game behind the AFC North leaders. The Chargers also have the benefit of a win over the Chiefs—now a major tiebreaker asset.
How did the 2025 NFL playoff format change from last year?
The 2025 season is the second year of the 14-team playoff format, adding a third wild card team in each conference. That means seven teams make the playoffs from each conference instead of six. The top two seeds get byes, while seeds 3-7 play in the wild card round. This format has made the race more chaotic—teams as low as 6-6 (like the Chiefs) still have a mathematical shot, but also more likely to be eliminated early.
Why are the Detroit Lions out of contention despite being 7-5?
The Lions were swept by the Packers, who now sit ahead of them in the NFC North standings. They also lost to the Rams and Seahawks, and their strength of schedule is weaker than other wild card contenders. With three teams ahead of them in the wild card race and only two games left against teams under .500, their playoff math doesn’t add up.
What role did the Thanksgiving games play in reshaping the playoff picture?
Thanksgiving night was a turning point. The Chiefs lost in Dallas, and the Lions were crushed by the Packers. Both were last year’s top seeds and expected to contend again. Their losses opened the door for the Rams to claim the NFC top seed and pushed the Chargers and Jaguars into clearer wild card positions. It was the most consequential Thanksgiving in recent memory.
